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Onshore Spot Close to +2% Above Fixing, USD/CNH above 7.1400

CNH

USD/CNH rose just under 0.80% through Friday's session. There was some resistance above 7.1400, with the high post the Asia close of around 7.1470. Early dips in the pair have been supported this morning. We last sat around 7.1430/35. The focus today will be on the CNY fixing, as onshore spot closed just under 7.1300 on Friday, nearly +2% above Friday's fixing level.

  • There is likely to be a number of upside resistance points in USD/CNH. Previous highs from 2019 and 2020 ahead of 7.16/7.17 could be in focus. Beyond that of course is the record highs in USD/CNH just under 7.2000.
  • The domestic data calendar is quiet until tomorrow when industrial profits for August print.
  • This leaves the focus on the USD/CNY fixing. On Friday, the fixing was 6.9920, against the Bloomberg consensus of 7.0758.
  • The chart below plots the deviation between onshore spot and the daily USD/CNY fixing.
  • Fixing estimates should remain comfortably above 7.0000 today, given the onshore spot close from Friday and broad based USD gains (DXY +1.65% for Friday's session).

Fig 1: USD/CNY Spot Deviation With USD/CNY Fix

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USD/CNH rose just under 0.80% through Friday's session. There was some resistance above 7.1400, with the high post the Asia close of around 7.1470. Early dips in the pair have been supported this morning. We last sat around 7.1430/35. The focus today will be on the CNY fixing, as onshore spot closed just under 7.1300 on Friday, nearly +2% above Friday's fixing level.

  • There is likely to be a number of upside resistance points in USD/CNH. Previous highs from 2019 and 2020 ahead of 7.16/7.17 could be in focus. Beyond that of course is the record highs in USD/CNH just under 7.2000.
  • The domestic data calendar is quiet until tomorrow when industrial profits for August print.
  • This leaves the focus on the USD/CNY fixing. On Friday, the fixing was 6.9920, against the Bloomberg consensus of 7.0758.
  • The chart below plots the deviation between onshore spot and the daily USD/CNY fixing.
  • Fixing estimates should remain comfortably above 7.0000 today, given the onshore spot close from Friday and broad based USD gains (DXY +1.65% for Friday's session).

Fig 1: USD/CNY Spot Deviation With USD/CNY Fix

Keep reading...Show less