OPEC+ Meeting Delay Overview

Updates on the OPEC+ situation given the delay:

• Chief OPEC correspondent Amena Bakr said on X: “There’s been no change overnight and until now. Both Nigeria and Angola are not accepting changes proposed to their baselines.”
• Amena added “Despite the current deadlock over the baselines none of the African states have threatened to leave Opec.”
• “Reminder that the pending issue is related to Nigeria and Angola accepting to have a new baseline that reflects their actual production capabilities” she added.
• Amena’s comments come within the last hour. She is one of the few journalist still accredited by the group to cover OPEC engagements.
• Angola has shown the most resistance to the baseline changes in the past, with its energy minister storming out of the last meeting while Platts reported he was not attending this one in protest.
• Citi analysts added on the situation it “heightens the drama, probably not the outcome”, adding “Saudi Arabia is still expected to roll its 1m b/d voluntary cut through to 1Q 2024, while the rest of OPEC+ broadly commits to existing quotas through 2024.”
• Cita analysts added that “Saudi Arabia is still expected to roll its 1m b/d voluntary cut through to 1Q 2024, while the rest of OPEC+ broadly commits to existing quotas through 2024”
• RBC believes Nigeria can be convinced to agree with quotas, but Angola will be tougher. RBC does not see a potential Angola exit “as material to the working of the organization”
• Note as well the recent 275,000 bpd of production Nigeria’s NNPC said it has ‘restored’ in a November 12 statement that complicates its situation.
• See here for the MNI OPEC preview covering numerous industry views, quotas as well as Angola issues. Note this was released shortly before the OPEC+ meeting delay headlines but most of which remains relevant: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQKMw7gI6a9nKhsiEg~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nFXsLwptIPjO1OcQ