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OPEC+ Will Cancel Q4 Cut Tapering if Market Conditions Require: RBC

OIL

OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia “will hit the kill switch on a Q4 increase in the event of an oversupply/poor sentiment situation come September,” RBC’s Helima Croft said in a note cited by Bloomberg.

  • “The abundant supply picture at present undoubtedly is generating queasiness in the oil market, even among players who aren’t OPEC-sceptics,” she said.
  • The market has been on a downward trend following OPEC+’s announcement, which Croft attributes to a section of the market viewing the bloc’s timeline for tapering cuts as a binding commitment.
  • However, Croft cautioned against the timeline being set in stone.
  • “This JMMC can be turned into a full OPEC ministerial with the authority to make additional supply adjustments and certainly to pause taper plans at a minimum.”
  • She added that the only firm commitment appears to be the 300k b/d increase in the UAE’s quota from 2025.
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