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Opens Europe Soft but $1.1700-1.1695 Remains Key

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Rejection away from the $1.1700 area Wednesday (low $1.1704) prompted suggestion of option barrier interest at the figure (no confirmation) and prompted a recovery to $1.1760 ahead of the 1600BST with month-end USD sales flow noted. Rate drifted lower ahead of the close, meeting support at $1.1720.
  • Slow trade through the main part of the Asian session with rate restricted to a $1.1721/33 range before stop hunting emerged ahead of the Europe open to take rate through $1.1720 to $1.1714 (AUD/USD same time saw stops triggered on break of $0.7560).
  • Support remains into $1.1700, with technical support noted close behind at $1.1695(38.2% 1.0636-1.2349), a break to open a deeper move toward $1.1680(base of 1.0% 10-dma envelope) ahead of $1.1650. Several see little technical support through to $1.1600.
  • Resistance $1.1733 ahead of $1.1760, $1.1775/85 and $1.1805.
  • Germany Retail Sales 0600GMT, Final Mfg PMI's for the EZ from Spain 0715GMT to EZ at 0800GMT. US Weekly Jobless Claims at 1230GMT, PMI Mfg final 1345GMT, ISM Mfg 1400GMT. Fed Harker speaks at 1700GMT.
  • US NFP Friday (Good Friday, many centres will be closed), median 650k though market talk looks for a stronger number.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is trading closer to recent lows and maintains a bearish theme. This week's move lower has resulted in a break of support at 1.1752, 1.236 projection of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing. The move lower reinforces current bearish conditions and paves the way for an extension lower towards 1.1695, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1805, the Mar 26 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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