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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate for the main opposition Nation Alliance, released a video on the evening of 19 April talking of his Alevi identity in a bold gamble ahead of the 14 May presidential election. In the video he called on first-time voters to reject the politics of division and sectarianism between Turkey's various ethnic and religious communities.
- Middle East Eye highlights why this is seen as a significant step in Turkish politics: "It was a surprising moment, especially since many left-wing commentators warned last year that his Alevi identity could undercut his chances against Erdogan. [...] [Alevi] are considered the second largest religious group after the Sunni Muslim majority, with estimates on the size of the population varying between 10 and 20 million. Since the founding of the Turkish republic, Alevis have suffered acute social rejection and physical violence."
- MEE: "While some of Kilicdaroglu’s ardent critics hailed the speech, it could backfire in the Central Anatolian provinces where the country’s sizable Sunni community live. Meanwhile, Mustafa Akis, a chief advisor to Erdogan, said that there was nothing courageous in Kilicdaroglu’s speech, “The debate is over who is more capable. We say; Kilicdaroglu has no talent.”
- Kilicdaroglu remains the narrow favourite to defeat the incumbent according to data from betting exchange Smarkets. He is given a 51.0% implied probability of winning compared to 42.4% for the incumbent Erdogan (total sums to less than 100% due to bookmaker's profit).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Election Winner, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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