Opposition CDU Hits Post-Election High In New Poll, Lead Over SPD At 8%

The latest opinion poll from GMS shows the oppositon centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) hitting a post-election high in public support, while its lead over Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) - standing at 8% - is the joint-highest since the September 2021 federal election.

• CDU/CSU: 30% (+4), SPD: 22% (-4), Green: 20% (+2), FDP: 8% (=), AfD: 7% (-2), DIE LINKE: 4% (=), Others: 9% (=). GMS, Fieldwork: 25-30 May, chgs w/ 20-25 Apr, 1,005 respondents.
• The strong poll marks another step in the resurgence of the CDU, which lost power after 16 years in the 2021 election. The party, under new conservative leader Friedrich Merz, has performed well in state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany's most populous state) over the past two months.
• The CDU's gains have come at the same time as gains for the Greens, one of the junior partners to Scholz's SPD in the federal coalition. Both the CDU and Greens have taken a hard-line stance towards Russia in terms of sanctions and support for Ukraine since February.
• This is in comparison to the SPD and another junior coalition partner, the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP), which have both seen support plunge amidst a less forceful stance on the war and rising inflationary pressures (the FDP hold the finance ministry and therefore have come to be associated with the pressure facing households).