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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PORTUGAL
The opposition centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) continues to gain on Prime Minister Antonio Costa's centre-left Socialist Party (PS) in opinion polling ahead of the 30 January parliamentary election. The three-poll average lead for the PS over the PSD has shrunk from 14% in September 2021 to just 5% in three polls conducted 18-19 January 2022.
Chart 1. Portugal General Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average
Souce: Pitagorica, CESOP, Aximage, Intercampus, ICS, MNI
- Analysis from polling outlet CESOP suggests that in order to secure an overall majoirt in parliament, the PS would need to secure 41% of the vote nationwide. At present, the party is polling around 37-39%, making this achievement possible but a tall ask for the incumbents.
- Without a majority there is the prospect of a lengthy period of negotiations between party heads. The populist left-wing Left Bloc (BE) and the socialist Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) both left the PS gov't in late-2021 over a budget dispute and may not be inclined to return to the previous arrangement. Another possibility is a 'grand coalition' between the PS and PSD, or for the PS to govern as a minority.
- It is unlikely that the PSD would be able to secure enough support from other parties to govern without the PS, unless it significantly outperforms its opinion polling averages.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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