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Orpo-Today Should Tell If Gov't Formation Possible By End-Week

FINLAND

Leader of the centre-right National Coalition Party (Kok) and frontrunner to take over as PM, Petteri Orpo has stated that it should become clear today (13 June) whether coalition negotiations will be able to be completed by the end of this week. Negotiations between Orpo's Kok, the right-wing nationalist Finns, the social conservative Christian Democrats, and the minority interest Swedish People's Party have dragged on for seven weeks following the 2 April legislative election.

  • Yle reportsthat Orpo"...said negotiators have made considerable progress on a number of controversial issues, including development aid and transportation fuel distribution obligation levels. [...]. The negotiators have other hefty topics to discuss, including agreeing to policies on Finland's public social and health care services."
  • Given the numbers in parliament, the formation of a right-leaning coalition remains overwhelmingly likely even if it takes further time to reach that point.
  • At the EU level once the transition from a left-leaning gov't under caretaker PM Sanna Marin to a conservative one under Orpo takes place, Finland could move much more firmly back into the 'frugals' category alongside Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. This would give more weight to the unofficial bloc of countries during upcoming EU fiscal rule negotiations over the coming months.
Chart 1. Finnish Parliament (Seat Change in April 2 Election)

Source: Interior Ministry

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