Out-Of-Consensus Sell-Side Views For This Week's FOMC

A round-up of some of the more out-of-consensus views that we've seen for this week's FOMC:

• On asset purchases: Fed to extend the maturity of Tsy purchases to 5 years and longer, but also slow from the current $80bln/month (UBS) / to modestly lengthen the average duration of Tsy purchases (Barclays) / to increase QE buying alongside strengthened fwd guidance (Danske)
• To to deliver enhanced, outcome-based fwd guidance, to cover both employment and inflation, with the 2012 Evans Rule as a rough template (BNP)
• In Dot Plot, could be consensus behind one rate hike by end-2023 (ING)
• Fed to eliminate the forecast of the longer-run unemployment rate from the Summary of Economic Projections table (ANZ and Nomura)
• SEP medians to show overshoots of 2% inflation target and/or unemployment below NAIRU in latter years of projections (Credit Suisse / Deutsche / JPM / Unicredit - compared to most analysts who see infl forecast <= 2%)
• Could see PCE inflation forecast at 2.3-2.4% in 2022-2023 (Nordea)
• Long run expectation for the funds rate could be revised lower in SEP (NatWest, ING)
• To indicate it will start winding down repo operations (Nomura)
• Possible 5bps hike in minimum bid rate on overnight repo ops (Wrightson ICAP)