Outperforms Broader Risk Sentiment Today

Brent crude is tracking higher today, last near $85.35/bbl, down slightly from session highs of $85.66/bbl. We opened at $84.80/bbl. This puts Brent around 0.65% above Friday closing levels in NY, which if maintained would be the third straight session of gains. WTI last tracked near $81.90/bbl, slightly firmer for the session so far at +0.80%.

• Oil moves today have slightly outperformed the broader risk tone in markets, particularly post the surprise hold in China's 5yr LPR rate. Regional equities are mixed, while the USD indices are steady, albeit with the USD outperforming some higher beta plays.
• Oil's resilience may be more reflective of tighter supply conditions biting. Outside of the well documented OPEC+ cuts, the US rig count is down to 520, its lowest level since early 2022.
• There are also some signs of concerns around diesel supply as we head into the winter months for the northern hemisphere, which may be spilling over into Brent/WTI.
• For Brent, on the downside, lows from last week came in near $83/bbl, while the 200-day EMA is near $82.75. On the topside, earlier August highs rest just above $88.00/bbl.