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Overnight Volatility Elevated Ahead of Jobs Data

AUD

AUD/USD overnight implied volatility sits at 14.945% as option markets price in a $0.6720-$0.6843 range in the aftermath of today’s labour market report.

  • Overnight implied volatility is elevated and at it's highest level since early April, however well below the levels seen at the height of the SVB crisis.
  • Overnight risk reversals are skewed to the downside, however we sit well above levels seen pre-SVB crisis and within the yearly range.
  • Technically the impulsive rally in AUD/USD last week resulted in the break of short term resistance points, and a short term bullish theme persists.
  • Resistance comes in at $0.69, high from June 16, and $0.6936 the high from Feb 16. Support is at $0.6754 low from July 19 and $0.6746 the 20-Day EMA.


Fig 1: AUD/USD Overnight Implied Volatility

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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