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Panama Drought May Worsen Freight in 2024: Argus

FREIGHT

The coming drier season for Panama will likely bring historically low water levels at the Panama Canal, worsening freight rates in 2024, according to Argus.

  • The main impact of continued droughts on oil markets will be West Coast Latam buyers of USGC refined products with shipowners now demanding high rates for the journey.
  • Under the worst-case scenario, West Coast Latam buyers would have to bring USGC cargoes via the straits of Magellan, tying vessels up on longer voyages and causing freight freights to surge.
  • Water levels at Gatun Lake, which feeds the Panama Canal, are expected to end 2023 at 81.1 ft, the lowest recorded for a calendar year start.
  • The lake typically sees a 3 ft drop from Jan-June, which could hit 78.3 ft, the lowest on record.
  • The El Nino weather system could bring down levels further to 73.1 ft.
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