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Pantheon On Mexico Inflation Data/Banxico Policy

MEXICO
  • Pantheon believe that the underlying trend of headline inflation will continue to fall over the second half to about 5.2% in December, down from 5.8% in June. More immediately, May’s data suggest that Banxico will start to change the tone in its communications soon, opening the door for rate cuts in September or November.
  • Pantheon note that overall, the inflation rate continues to fall as temporary shocks fade, and thanks to favourable base effects. Weaker growth in private spending, and the effect of tight monetary policy, will help to reduce inflation pressures even further over the next three-to-six months. The MXN's rebound since July will continue to deliver relief in the coming months. Core inflation is now falling, but it is still too high for comfort. The good news is that the fall in shipping costs and slowing in producer output price inflation indicates that core goods CPI inflation will continue to fall over the rest of this year. Pantheon also expect services CPI inflation to decline further, eventually.
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