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Payroll Wage Growth Trends In Wrong Direction For The BOC [1/2]

CANADA DATA
  • The earlier released SEPH report showed payroll employment slide 140k back in April, of which circa 115k was linked to the temporary drop in public administration strikes, leaving a ‘genuine’ 25k decline after the 10k drop in March.
  • Average weekly earnings drop meanwhile were little changed on the month but it meant an acceleration in Y/Y terms from 1.8% in March to 2.9% in April.
  • Notably, wages on a fixed weight basis that better adjusts for compositional changes, also accelerated from 3.0% to 4.4% Y/Y for its fastest pace since Jul’22. This is clearly something the BoC won’t want to see at this stage of the cycle, although the data are notably lagging being only for April.
  • The CFIB small business survey was more encouraging with a rolling over in wage expectations for June, but tomorrow’s BOS own measure of wage expectations is going to be critical.

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