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Payrolls Far Stronger Than Expected

DATA REACT
  • Payrolls were far stronger than expected at +467k in Jan with massive upward revisions (+709k over the past two months), with the benchmark adjustment doing the hard work.
  • There is a lot to unpack but a first take is that the Household reports the last few months were more correct than the Establishment reports in showing a stronger labor market.
  • Re benchmarking: "the over-the month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported."
  • The unemployment rate edged up a tenth to 4.0% whilst participation rates increased, with the total up 0.3pps to 62.2% and prime age nudging a tenth higher to a new post pandemic high of 82.0%. However, it’s hard to read too much into this: "People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons."
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