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NATGAS: Peace Efforts In Ukraine 'Unlikely' To Impact 2025 Filling Season

NATGAS
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Efforts to secure Ukraine peace agreement are unlikely to have an impact on Russian gas deliveries to Europe through the 2025 filling season, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar. 

  • Speculation that Russian gas exports to Europe could ramp-up following a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems to be ‘the single most important driver for price swings’, according to Molnar.
  • However, given the geopolitical complexity at play, and that talks could take months, Molnar does not see increased Russian flows to Europe this filling season.
  • Increased flows via Ukraine would be ‘difficult to sell’ in terms of domestic politics, considering that the pipelines were recently used in Russian military operations.
  • European buyers could be hindered by unresolved legal disputes with Gazprom, broken trust and public perception, Molnar said.
  • The coming weeks will be dominated by proposals, announcements and rumours around Russian gas to Europe and TTF will ‘certainly continue to display a great deal of volatility’, according to Molnar.
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Efforts to secure Ukraine peace agreement are unlikely to have an impact on Russian gas deliveries to Europe through the 2025 filling season, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar. 

  • Speculation that Russian gas exports to Europe could ramp-up following a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems to be ‘the single most important driver for price swings’, according to Molnar.
  • However, given the geopolitical complexity at play, and that talks could take months, Molnar does not see increased Russian flows to Europe this filling season.
  • Increased flows via Ukraine would be ‘difficult to sell’ in terms of domestic politics, considering that the pipelines were recently used in Russian military operations.
  • European buyers could be hindered by unresolved legal disputes with Gazprom, broken trust and public perception, Molnar said.
  • The coming weeks will be dominated by proposals, announcements and rumours around Russian gas to Europe and TTF will ‘certainly continue to display a great deal of volatility’, according to Molnar.