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Pension Withdrawal Bill Vote, BCRP Decision

PERU
  • The risk of a new pension withdrawals continues to linger and Congress is expected to vote on a new withdrawal bill today. If approved, it would allow workers to withdraw up to 20,600 soles ($5,599) per person from their private pension accounts. According to Ministry of Finance estimates, potential outflows from the private pension system could amount to around PEN29.5bn (~$8bn), vs. total AUM of PEN127.4bn.
  • After the close, most analysts expect the BCRP to extend the pause in its easing cycle, keeping the policy rate at 6.25% for a second successive meeting after the unexpected hold in March. However, the decision is expected to be a close call and a minority of analysts still look for a 25bp cut.
  • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60820/MNI%20Peru%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20April%202024.pdf

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