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Periphery Move More Risk-Off Than ECB Related

EGBS

The sizeable widening of BTP spreads today has been somewhat at odds with recent trends: the prior 5 sessions, as ECB tightening expectations have softened, the BTP/Bund spread had narrowed.

  • But today, with no discernable change in ECB expectations, BTP spreads have widened sharply. (The chart below shows the Mar22-Dec22 Euribor implied spread against BTP spreads.)
  • The periphery spread move is probably attributable to Ukraine-Russia headlines dragging down broader risk assets, therefore.
  • The absence of downward movement in ECB hike pricing today is possibly explained by this morning's strong PMI readings which could help tip the ECB a little closer to tightening once the geopolitical clouds dissipate.

Source: BBG

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