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Peru Central Bank Preview – November 2023

PERU
  • The majority of analysts believe the BCRP will continue with its easing cycle by delivering another 25bp reference rate cut to 7.00%. However, the substantial downside surprise in the October CPI data and the ongoing weakness for economic activity indicators has prompted one analyst to forecast a bolder 50bp rate cut.
  • Given the disappointing growth data and sharp decline for headline inflation, some analysts have touted the idea that the central bank could adjust the language in its opening paragraph of the statement. Previously the BCRP have signalled that subsequent action does not necessarily imply a sequence of interest rate reductions. By eliminating this phrasing and committing to a more explicit guidance for future cuts, this could be perceived as a dovish development. However, given the cautious nature of the committee and the tightening of global financial conditions between meetings, the BCRP is less likely to make a substantial dovish pivot at this particular juncture.
  • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here:

    • MNI Peru Central Bank Preview - November 2023.pdf


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