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Peru's BCRP Seen Raising Rates For 12th Consecutive Meeting

PERU
  • Analysts unanimously expect Peru's BCRP to raise rates by 50bps to 6.00% today, marking the 12th consecutive rate hike in a very consistent cycle off 2021's low of 0.25%.
  • A rate of 6.00% marks the tightest policy has been in Peru since 2009, but it's unlikely the BCRP are close to the peak of their rate cycle just yet, with CPI continuing to accelerate and exceed the bank's inflation target by a sizeable margin.
  • June's statement showed the bank expect inflation to return to target somewhere between Q2 and Q3 next year, with inflation seen slowing from this month onwards. Further weakness evident in the USDPEN rate makes a deceleration of price pressures unlikely at this stage, with the pair higher by over 7% off the late May lows and technicals suggesting further gains toward the YTD highs of 4.00.
  • The BCRP are clearly aware of the pressure on inflation expectations, noting that one-year-ahead expectations still sit north of the inflation band at 4.89% in May - suggesting expectations for inflation to return to target may have to be pushed back by a quarter or more.
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