PES Unemployment Claims Rate Steady, LFS Data On Friday

The PES unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted registered unemployment claims rate tracked by the Swedish Public Employment Service) was broadly steady in January, printing at 6.62% (vs 6.59% prior). The LFS unemployment rate - which the Riksbank forecasts in its MPR - is due on Friday, and is expected at 8.2%.

• Note that the Bloomberg calendar reports the NSA claims rate excluding those in job support programmes (which was 3.5% vs 3.4% prior).
• The press release notes the increase in unemployment amongst men has been larger than for women, since male-dominated industries - such as construction- have been most affected by the deteriorating economy and rising interest rates.
• Looking into the details of the print, vacancies rose to 130k (from 119k), bringing the vacancies to unemployment ratio to 0.37 (vs 0.34 prior), but this is still below the cycle high of 0.60 in May '23.
• The claims data also indicates that the gradual rises in the unemployment claims rate has not been due to an increase in long-term unemployment. Between June '23 (when the unemployment claims rate reached a cycle low of 6.23%) and Jan '24, the percentage of those unemployed for less than 6-months has risen from 39% (of unemployed persons) to 42%, while the percentage of those unemployed for more than 12-months has fallen from 43% to 40%.