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Peso A Touch Higher With Risk, June Retail Sales Data Due

MEXICO
  • A better start to the week for risk sees USDMXN 0.32% lower from the open around 20.30. Friday saw some strong price action as the pair broke out above the recent range highs to trade as high as 20.4564. The initial break of 20.25 may now provide immediate short-term support.
  • Ahead today, June retail sales data is due before tomorrow's Aug-15 Bi weekly CPI data, where estimates indicate the annual headline reading should have fallen from to 5.66% from 5,86% previously.
    • 1200/0700ET: Mexico June Retail Sales M/m; est. 0.1%, prior 0.6%
    • 1200/0700ET: Mexico June Retail Sales Y/y; est. 20.4%, prior 29.7%
  • Released late Friday, Citi survey of economists raised the year-end forecast for inflation once more and also predict another 25bps hike from the central bank in September:
    • 2021 year-end inflation raised to 6.05% from 6.00%
    • Banxico seen raising key rate 25bps in September
    • 2021 year-end rate held at 5.00%, 2022 year-end rate held at 5.50%: Citi Survey
    • 2022 year-end inflation raised to 3.78% from 3.68%

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