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Peso Continues To Outperform Regional Peers

CHILE
  • The Chilean peso traded with a moderate upward bias on Monday, extending its outperformance seen over the past week. Copper prices surging to the best level in two years have aided the CLP recovery, although front month futures have dipped around 1.5% on Tuesday. The metal has surged in recent weeks on investor optimism over a recovery in global manufacturing, the prospect of tightening mine supplies and pricing in the medium-term story of energy transition.
  • USDCLP support to watch lies at 935.63, the Mar 15 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards 922.80 initially, 50.0% of the Dec 1 ‘23 - Feb 26 bull leg.
  • As a reminder, Chile’s central bank President Rosanna Costa said plans to extend the easing cycle remain intact but highlighted increased caution in the bank’s scenarios and projections. The next BCCh meeting falls on May 23 where consensus leans towards a 50bp cut. March PPI figures are the only data this week.
  • Elsewhere, Chile recorded a 6% reduction in homicides in 2023 following a surge the year prior, giving President Gabriel Boric and his administration a welcome boost in its struggle against crime.
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