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Peso Depreciates Despite Strong Q3 GDP Outturn

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The Philippine peso has found little support in expectation-busting Q3 GDP figures. The economy grew 7.6% Y/Y in the three months through end-September, printing above the consensus forecast of +6.2%. Only one analyst in a Bloomberg survey had forecast a faster pace of growth.

  • Demand held up well in Q3, with consumer spending up 8.0% Y/Y, even as inflation accelerated well beyond the central bank's target. This supports the case for more aggressive monetary tightening by the BSP.
  • Economic Planning Sec Balisacan said GDP outturn was boosted by economic reopening, setting the nation on track to achieve its +6.5%-7.5% Y/Y growth target for the year. Still, the economy is facing risks from fast inflation and the authorities will monitor the situation to stabilise prices.
  • Balisacan noted that while sharp FX swings are bad for the economy, the peso's decline that's in line with fundamentals is not a source of concern, even as FinSec Diokne had earlier effectively drawn a line in the sand for USD/PHP at PHP60.
  • Spot USD/PHP deals +0.151 at PHP58.165 and bears need a return below the 50-DMA (PHP58.120) before targeting the 100-DMA at PHP56.847. Bulls keep an eye on the PHP59 all-time high.
  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF remain below the 50-DMA and last sit +0.15 at PHP58.26. Topside focus falls on Nov 3 high of PHP59.05, while bears look for losses towards the 100-DMA at PHP57.14.
  • President Marcos expressed his hope to discuss the disputed parts of the West Philippine Sea with Chinese President Xi, as talks with Beijing are "impossible" without mentioning the issue.
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The Philippine peso has found little support in expectation-busting Q3 GDP figures. The economy grew 7.6% Y/Y in the three months through end-September, printing above the consensus forecast of +6.2%. Only one analyst in a Bloomberg survey had forecast a faster pace of growth.

  • Demand held up well in Q3, with consumer spending up 8.0% Y/Y, even as inflation accelerated well beyond the central bank's target. This supports the case for more aggressive monetary tightening by the BSP.
  • Economic Planning Sec Balisacan said GDP outturn was boosted by economic reopening, setting the nation on track to achieve its +6.5%-7.5% Y/Y growth target for the year. Still, the economy is facing risks from fast inflation and the authorities will monitor the situation to stabilise prices.
  • Balisacan noted that while sharp FX swings are bad for the economy, the peso's decline that's in line with fundamentals is not a source of concern, even as FinSec Diokne had earlier effectively drawn a line in the sand for USD/PHP at PHP60.
  • Spot USD/PHP deals +0.151 at PHP58.165 and bears need a return below the 50-DMA (PHP58.120) before targeting the 100-DMA at PHP56.847. Bulls keep an eye on the PHP59 all-time high.
  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF remain below the 50-DMA and last sit +0.15 at PHP58.26. Topside focus falls on Nov 3 high of PHP59.05, while bears look for losses towards the 100-DMA at PHP57.14.
  • President Marcos expressed his hope to discuss the disputed parts of the West Philippine Sea with Chinese President Xi, as talks with Beijing are "impossible" without mentioning the issue.