Pezeshkian Election Unlikely To Radically Alter Iran's Policy Stances

The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran's next president has seen a flurry of speculation about the potential impact a change in leadership could have on Iran's political landscape, its foreign relations, and the broader regional outlook.

• Under the late Ebrahim Raisi the country was destined for a sustained period of control by hardliners that would align strongly with Russia and China, ramp up development of nuclear weapons, and risk outright war with Israel.
• Pezeshkian's victory comes as a rebuttal of this conservative stance, with domestic economic issues surrounding rampant inflation and high unemployment dominating discourse, combined with many young voters (a massive cohort in the youthful country) eschewing the social conservatism of hardliners.

• Moreover, Iran's key institutions (armed forces, judiciary, police, IRGC, state media) are controlled by conservative Khamenei loyalists. Pezeshkian has also affirmed his loyalty to Khamenei and described himself as a 'principalist' (seen as more conservative than reformists) meaning he is unlikely to be able/willing to radically alter policy.