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PHILIP Curve Flattens, Central Banks Sees Inflation Between 3.5%-4.3%

PHILIPPINES
  • The PHILIP curve has bull-flattened today with the 2Y yield is 2bps lower at 5.28%, 5Y yield is 2.5bps lower at 5.385%, 10Y yield is 4bps lower 5.47%, while 5yr CDS is 0.5bp higher at 67.5bps.
  • The Philip to US Treasury spread difference is little changed over the last 24 hours with the 2y is 31bps (+0.5bps), the 5yr is 74bps (unchanged), while the 10yr is 86.5bps (-0.5bp).
  • Cross-asset moves: The USD/PHP is down 0.08% at 57.63, the PHP trades just off mulit-year lows, PSEi Index is unchanged after surging higher on Monday, while US Tsys yields are flat to 0.5bp lower.
  • The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas predicts that April's inflation rate (Due out May 7th) in the Philippines will likely range between 3.5% and 4.3%, slightly lower than March's 3.7%, this is verses the market consensus of 4.2%. Factors contributing to this projection include rising prices of rice and meat, increased gasoline costs, and peso depreciation. However, lower prices of fish, fruits, vegetables, and electricity may counterbalance these upward pressures. The central bank emphasizes its commitment to monitoring inflation and growth data to inform future monetary policy decisions.
  • Looking Ahead, S&P Global Philippines PMI Mfg on Thursday
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