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Philly Fed Negative Prices Received Negative For First Time Since Pandemic

US DATA
  • The price components of today’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey stood out as one of the weakest areas. Current period prices received (-3.3 from +7.9) dipping negative for the first time since Apr/May’20 of the pandemic and prior to that for any sustainable period of time in 2015-16.
  • Combined with the sizeable improvement in supply chain pressures per the NY Fed’s GSCPI to March, it adds weight to the March deceleration in producer prices and suggests we could see this start to feed through to consumer goods prices (outside of used vehicles) in the months ahead.
  • Caveated by an increase in the six-month ahead prices received measure and the fact that consumer service prices remain more important for the FOMC as a better gauge of underlying price pressures, this renewed push lower is nevertheless likely welcomed at the margin.

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