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Philly Fed Non-Mfg At Odds With PMI Services Recovery

US DATA
  • The Philly Fed non-manufacturing activity index fell from -12.8 to -22.8 in April for its lowest reading since Dec’20, contrary to the flash PMI rising further from 52.6 to 53.7.
  • It broadly mirrored the mfg index last week falling to a fresh low since the depths of the pandemic, whilst the six-month ahead measure also fell from -3.5 to -10.9 although remained off October’s low of -20.5.
  • Current period weakness was led by new orders falling from -15.4 to -23.9 (lowest since Apr/May’20 otherwise new low for series starting in 2011) although employment categories firmed somewhat with full-time at 11.5 (+8.3pts) and part-time at -4.2 (+2.6pts).
  • Price measures were mixed but the most notable area was wage and benefit costs bouncing sharply from 25.1 back to 39.7 to reverse what had looked like sizeable moderation.

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