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ASIA FX: PHP Outperforms Today, IDR and INR Still Lagging In 2025 To Date

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletAPACEmerging Market News

In South East Asia, FX trends have been mixed. Some USD weakness has been evident but this has likely largely reflected USD weakness post yesterday's onshore closes. Cross FX trends have offsetting as well, with yen stronger in the G10 space, but CNY weaker as onshore markets returned from the LNY break. 

  • USD/IDR has been supported sub 16300 (lows of 16289). We were last at 16320, so up around 0.155 in IDR terms. Still Indonesia, along India, has been a laggard in the FX space since the start of 2025. Data showed Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. The new government is aiming for much stronger GDP growth.
  • USD/INR is holding above 87.00, last near 87.15. We have the RBI decision on Friday, with markets looking for a rate cut. The HSBC service PMI final read for Jan was at 56.5 versus 56.8 initially reported.
  • USD/PHP is tracking lower, last close to session lows of 58.00. The pair is sub all key EMAs, except the 200-day (near 57.69). Cross asset sentiment is helping from the equity space, the PCOMP up around 2.6% so far today. Technical support may be in play, as the index recently tested sub 6000, which was lows back to 2022, so some dip buying may be present. We did have inflation data for Jan earlier, which was slightly above expectations in headline terms.
  • USD/SGD is little changed, close to 1.3525/30 at the time of writing. We are very close to the 50-day EMA, while the 20-day sits a little higher at 1.3560. Dec retail sales figures were weaker than forecast, dropping -2.9%y/y against a +1.0% forecast. Earlier the S&P PMI slipped back into contraction. 
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In South East Asia, FX trends have been mixed. Some USD weakness has been evident but this has likely largely reflected USD weakness post yesterday's onshore closes. Cross FX trends have offsetting as well, with yen stronger in the G10 space, but CNY weaker as onshore markets returned from the LNY break. 

  • USD/IDR has been supported sub 16300 (lows of 16289). We were last at 16320, so up around 0.155 in IDR terms. Still Indonesia, along India, has been a laggard in the FX space since the start of 2025. Data showed Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. The new government is aiming for much stronger GDP growth.
  • USD/INR is holding above 87.00, last near 87.15. We have the RBI decision on Friday, with markets looking for a rate cut. The HSBC service PMI final read for Jan was at 56.5 versus 56.8 initially reported.
  • USD/PHP is tracking lower, last close to session lows of 58.00. The pair is sub all key EMAs, except the 200-day (near 57.69). Cross asset sentiment is helping from the equity space, the PCOMP up around 2.6% so far today. Technical support may be in play, as the index recently tested sub 6000, which was lows back to 2022, so some dip buying may be present. We did have inflation data for Jan earlier, which was slightly above expectations in headline terms.
  • USD/SGD is little changed, close to 1.3525/30 at the time of writing. We are very close to the 50-day EMA, while the 20-day sits a little higher at 1.3560. Dec retail sales figures were weaker than forecast, dropping -2.9%y/y against a +1.0% forecast. Earlier the S&P PMI slipped back into contraction.