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Pill: Not Comfortable Calling Turning Point In Rates

BOE
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  • BOE’s Pill sees the chance of inflation becoming embedded in the UK as higher than in the EU and isn’t comfortable calling a turning point in rates.
  • He’s comfortable with a downshift though, arguing that UK rate rises will probably be less aggressive than in the past. That goes in hand with how we saw typically hawkish remarks from Mann earlier as still leaving the door open to voting for a downshift to 25bp in March.
  • Elsewhere, he saw Brexit pushing up rates and inflation with a link between trade and high productivity, whilst for QT mechanics, he sees it likely continuing even if rates come down.
  • GBPUSD holds near day low at 1.2014 but GBP remains one of the top G10 FX performers on the day outside of outright USD strength.
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  • BOE’s Pill sees the chance of inflation becoming embedded in the UK as higher than in the EU and isn’t comfortable calling a turning point in rates.
  • He’s comfortable with a downshift though, arguing that UK rate rises will probably be less aggressive than in the past. That goes in hand with how we saw typically hawkish remarks from Mann earlier as still leaving the door open to voting for a downshift to 25bp in March.
  • Elsewhere, he saw Brexit pushing up rates and inflation with a link between trade and high productivity, whilst for QT mechanics, he sees it likely continuing even if rates come down.
  • GBPUSD holds near day low at 1.2014 but GBP remains one of the top G10 FX performers on the day outside of outright USD strength.