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(Z2) Appears Vulnerable


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  • In an interview yesterday with PAP, NBP policymaker Gatnar said that Poland needs a 50bps hike in December and January to curb the inflationary pressures. He also added that the current zloty exchange rate does not reflect good condition of Polish economy.
  • As a reminder, economic data yesterday showed that CPI inflation accelerated to 7.7% in November (vs. 7.3% expected), up from 6.8% the previous month, and continues to divergence significantly from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band (see chart).
  • Odds for a more aggressive hike (75bps) are now bigger, as the magnitude of the previous NBP hikes strongly depended on CPI prints.
  • As expected, PLN continues to consolidate higher ahead of the NBP meeting next week (December 8).
  • This morning, manufacturing PMI rose more than expectations in November to 54.4 (vs. 53.9 exp.), up from 53..8 the previous month.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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