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PLN/HUF Hovers Around Key Lateral Support as Central Bank Policy Divergence Boosts HUF

CEE FX
  • Since September 2020, PLN/HUF has maintained a broad, but choppy, downtrend after peaking at 81.37 – falling 5.24% in just under a year.
  • The recent initiation of the NBH's tightening cycle has helped bolster demand for HUF assets, while the NBP's ultra-loose policy settings as seen demand drop off as inflation continues to rise unabated
  • Price action is currently teetering around the 77.11 mark, just above the lower threshold of the bear channel structure which aligns with key support back as far as October 2019
  • While we may see a retracement higher in the near-term as traders take profit around the lower bound of the channel, the cross may continue to push lower towards 76.00 with the NBH expected to hike another 15bp on 24 Aug – further entrenching the policy divergence trade while the NBP remains on hold out towards November.


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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