PM Faces Critical Vote In Commons, Loss Could Spark Calls For Snap Election

The gov't of PM Rishi Sunak faces a critical vote in the House of Commons later today on legislation related to gov't plans to deport some failed asylum seekers to Rwanda. A number of MPs on the right of Sunak's governing Conservative party have indicated that they will vote against the legislation as-is, for not going far enough. In a sign of the divisions in the party, two vice-chairs and one parliamentary private secretary resigned on 16 Jan to vote in favour of amendments to the legislation opposed by the gov't.

• Around 30 Conservative MPs would need to vote against the legislation in order to overturn the gov'ts working majority. Only four Conservative MPs have stated publicly that they will vote against the legislation, but the gov't could offer last-minute concessions to deter potential rebels. The risk here is that by tacking to the right, Sunak could lose support of centrist Conservatives.
• Should the gov't lose the vote, likely to take place this evening, it could risk a vote of no confidence in the gov't or an internal challenge to Sunak's party leadership. With opinion polls showing the Conservatives trailing the main opposition Labour party by ~20% ahead of an election seen as likely in Q424, there has been speculation that the Conservative right could seek to replace Sunak before then. However, this comes with notable risks of a public backlash given that it would be the fourth different PM since voters last went to the polls in 2019.