PM Faces Senate Confidence Vote, Could Win But Without Full Majority

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's gov't faces its second confidence vote in as many days, with the Senate due to vote later today.

• Conte has just finished speaking in the Senate chamber, pleading with Senators to keep his gov't going during the time of pandemic. This is being followed by a debate(in Italian) and eventually a confidence vote.
• The timing of the Senate vote is not entirely clear. The vote in the Chamber of Deputies was not called until before 1800CET (1200ET, 1700GMT), with the result not coming through until just before 2100CET (1500ET, 2000GMT). Conte won by a margin of 321 to 259 deputies, relying on support from independents and smaller parties.
• There is a prospect that Conte wins the confidence vote without winning the support of a majority of Senators. Former PM Matteo Renzi's centrist Italia Viva (IV) party is set to abstain in the Senate vote. Based on rough numbers of Senators supportive of the gov't, it could give Conte a 152-151 win (see chart below). This would be enough to keep the gov't in power technically, but the 152 senators would be short of the 161 senators needed to reflect a full majority in the chamber.

Source: Italian Senate, MNI. N.b. Pro-Gov't C&S means Senators that support gov't in a confidence and supply agreement.

• It is unclear whether President Sergio Mattarella will allow a gov't that cannot command a majority of all senators (as opposed to those voting, not counting abstentions) to continue. Given the scale of the pandemic Conte could be asked to remain in place, or a caretaker gov't could be appointed to avoid elections.