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FRANCE: PM Favours Renegotiation Over Suspension Of Pension Reform; Risks PS Ire

FRANCE
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French media outlets reporting that PM Francois Bayrou has told parliamentary leaders of the gov't parties that he does not intend to announce a suspension of the 2023 pension reforms in his general policy speech to be delivered in the National Assembly at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT). Le Monde reports Bayrou said he "wished to initiate a renegotiation of the pension reform[...], in order to reach an agreement by September 2025, the date on which the retirement age should normally be raised by three additional months." 
  • The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has talked up a suspension of the reforms as its price for supporting the gov't in a post-speech censure vote, and indeed votes on the social security budget and state budget. The PS executive is set to meet at 1300CET (0700ET, 1200GMT), and it remains to be seen whether the party and its 66 deputies will back, abstain, or vote against the gov't come the probably Thursday 16 Jan censure vote. 
  • Should Bayrou's middle-ground approach on pension refrom fall short of PS demands then it remains to be seen whether the Bayrou gov't can last. Depending on the nature of censure motions - whether it is put forward by the gov't, far-left or far-right will impact support - should the left-wing New Popular Front alliance (in which the PS sits) and the far-right National Rally vote against Bayrou it would be enough to see the gov't defeated, risking further political paralysis. 
     
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French media outlets reporting that PM Francois Bayrou has told parliamentary leaders of the gov't parties that he does not intend to announce a suspension of the 2023 pension reforms in his general policy speech to be delivered in the National Assembly at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT). Le Monde reports Bayrou said he "wished to initiate a renegotiation of the pension reform[...], in order to reach an agreement by September 2025, the date on which the retirement age should normally be raised by three additional months." 
  • The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has talked up a suspension of the reforms as its price for supporting the gov't in a post-speech censure vote, and indeed votes on the social security budget and state budget. The PS executive is set to meet at 1300CET (0700ET, 1200GMT), and it remains to be seen whether the party and its 66 deputies will back, abstain, or vote against the gov't come the probably Thursday 16 Jan censure vote. 
  • Should Bayrou's middle-ground approach on pension refrom fall short of PS demands then it remains to be seen whether the Bayrou gov't can last. Depending on the nature of censure motions - whether it is put forward by the gov't, far-left or far-right will impact support - should the left-wing New Popular Front alliance (in which the PS sits) and the far-right National Rally vote against Bayrou it would be enough to see the gov't defeated, risking further political paralysis.