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FRANCE: PM Looks Safe In 16 Jan Censure Vote, But Bigger Obstacles Ahead

FRANCE
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The gov't of PM Francois Bayrou is likely to avoid being ousted at the first hurdle in the censure vote set to take place tomorrow (Thursday 16 Jan) in the National Assembly. The censure motion was put forward by the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) on 14 Jan following Bayrou's general policy speech to parliament.  President of the National Assembly Yael Braun-Pivet has said the chamber will take up the motion at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT). 

  • The centrist Ensemble, MoDem and Horizons parties will back Bayrou, as will the conservative Republican Right.
  • Far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) deputy and party spox Sebastien Chenu said "We will not vote for censure today. We only vote for censure on concrete actions and not on words,"
  • The most intense focus will be on the centre-left Socialist Party (PS). It sits within the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alongside LFI and other groups, but is being courted by Bayrou in an effort to win sufficient support to pass a budget.
  • After Bayrou's speech, PS head Olivier Faure said "On the essential issue, that of pensions, the Prime Minister has opened the door a crack, and it is true that this is an achievement (...) but it is not enough," adding "At this stage, we will censor," and said he was waiting for "a clear answer".
  • The RN's likely abstention will mean the LFI does not have the votes to oust Bayrou even if the PS sides with its NFP allies. 
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The gov't of PM Francois Bayrou is likely to avoid being ousted at the first hurdle in the censure vote set to take place tomorrow (Thursday 16 Jan) in the National Assembly. The censure motion was put forward by the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) on 14 Jan following Bayrou's general policy speech to parliament.  President of the National Assembly Yael Braun-Pivet has said the chamber will take up the motion at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT). 

  • The centrist Ensemble, MoDem and Horizons parties will back Bayrou, as will the conservative Republican Right.
  • Far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) deputy and party spox Sebastien Chenu said "We will not vote for censure today. We only vote for censure on concrete actions and not on words,"
  • The most intense focus will be on the centre-left Socialist Party (PS). It sits within the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alongside LFI and other groups, but is being courted by Bayrou in an effort to win sufficient support to pass a budget.
  • After Bayrou's speech, PS head Olivier Faure said "On the essential issue, that of pensions, the Prime Minister has opened the door a crack, and it is true that this is an achievement (...) but it is not enough," adding "At this stage, we will censor," and said he was waiting for "a clear answer".
  • The RN's likely abstention will mean the LFI does not have the votes to oust Bayrou even if the PS sides with its NFP allies.