PM's Social Democrats Retain Sizable Polling Lead A Month From Election

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats retain a sizable lead in the latest polling from Novus exactly one month out from the general election taking place 11 September.

• Novus poll: Social Democrats: 31% (-1), Sweden Democrats: 19% (+2), Moderates: 19% (-1), Left Party: 7% (-2), Centre Party: 7% (+2), Christian Democrats: 6% (-1), Greens: 5% (+1), Liberals: 5%. +/- vs. 6-26 June 2022, Fieldwork: 1-7 August 2022, Sample size: 1,893
• The Social Democrats have held a significant polling lead over the main opposition centre-right Moderates and the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats for several months. The party gained support following Andersson taking over from former PM Stefan Lofven, and maintained this level of backing as Nordic tensions with Russia escalated and resulted in Sweden making a bid to join NATO.
• The Social Democrats' victory is not guaranteed, though. The Social Democrats rely on support from other parties in the leftist 'red bloc' (environmentalist Greens, socialist Left Party, agrarian Centre Party) to govern either in coalition or as a minority gov't.
• The centre-right 'blue bloc' (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, conservative Christian Democrats, and libertarian Liberals) does not have a party with as much support as the Social Democrats, but put together their total support and seat total could rival that of the red bloc in the election.
• Even with a change in gov't, we would not expect to see a change in Stockholm's stance on NATO membership, with almost all political parties now avowedly in favour of the accession process.