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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to address a meeting of the 1922 Committee, the group of backbench (non-gov't) Conservative MPs, on 20 March at 1700GMT. This comes amid speculation that senior figures within gov't could look to oust Sunak ahead of any general election in an effort to reverse opinion polling that shows the party on course for a heavy defeat.
- The defection of Lee Anderson MP to the right-wing Reform UK, a scandal over racist comments made by a major Conservative donor, and widespread expectations of significant Conservative losses in the upcoming 2 May local elections have led to speculation that Conservative MPs could seek to remove Sunak. The two figures garnering most attention are Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch.
- In interviews on 18 March, Badenoch seemingly attempted to downplay rumours, saying to the BBC that it was just "a small minority of MPs" behind the speculation. The Guardian reportsclaims that it is rivals of Mordaunt disseminating rumours of her intention to challenge Sunak in an effort to portray her as disloyal.
- Last week, Sunak denied that a snap general election would take place on 2 May. This makes Q424 the most likely period for the vote to take place according to bettors, with a 75.8% implied probability. Given the sustained pressure on the gov't from poor polling numbers Sunak will need to bolster his support among backbenchers if he is not to face a disruptive leadership challenge in the spring/summer.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Date of Next General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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