PMI's Expected To Moderate But Remain Expansionary

Official China PMI data is due at 0200BST/0900HKT, consensus calls for the manufacturing figure to drop to 50.8 from 51.0, while non-manufacturing is expected at 55.3 from 55.2.

• Goldman Sachs are slightly more pessimistic than the median: "We expect the NBS manufacturing PMI to decline to 50.4 in June from 51.0 in May and the Caixin manufacturing PMI to decline to 51.5 in June from 52.0 in May. Manufacturing activities likely softened in June from May as export growth momentum slowed, and nationwide safety inspections ahead of the July 1st (the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party) probably also weighed on manufacturing activities. The lower commodity price inflation also suggests some downward bias to the manufacturing PMI headline readings. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI will also be released together with the manufacturing PMI, and we think it might show some signs of weakness due to drags on services activities from the virus control measures in Guangdong."