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PMI Shows Largest Fall In Output Since GFC Outside Of Lockdown

US DATA
  • Final readings from the S&P Global US PMIs were revised up slightly (services from 47.0 in the flash to 47.3) but it doesn't change the substantial decline from 52.7 in June.
  • The press release notes the bearish outlook for growth: "US economic conditions worsened markedly in July, with business activity falling across both the manufacturing and service sectors. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, the overall fall in output was the largest recorded since the global financial crisis and signals a strong likelihood that the economy will contract for a third consecutive quarter."
  • "Tightening financial conditions mean the financial services sector is leading the downturn".
  • "The flip side of deterioration in demand is a welcome alleviation of price pressures, which hint at a peaking of inflation."
  • 2Y Tsy yields whipsaw with the release, rising as much as 1bp before quickly sitting -1bp below but still +3.5bp on the day, with any reaction likely tamed by ISM Services coming up.
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