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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The downside surprises in the European PMI releases have taken the edge off yesterday’s hawkish repricing on the ECB-dated OIS strip, with some of the contracts now a couple of bp below Wednesday’s closing levels after this morning’s releases amplified ECB overtightening concerns.
- That leaves terminal rate pricing hovering just below the 4.00% mark, while a 25bp hike is virtually fully priced for July, with a cumulative ~40bp of tightening seen through the key September meeting, which comes after the Bank’s summer break.
- Comments from ECB President Lagarde stuck to the topic of green financing, while participants await the latest musings from De Cos & Panetta, although given that both have spoken recently, don’t expect much in the way of meaningful market reaction.
- Further out, preliminary Eurozone CPI data and the ECB’s annual Sintra gathering provide the focal points of next week’s Eurozone docket.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-23 | 3.644 | +24.7 |
| Sep-23 | 3.802 | +40.5 |
| Oct-23 | 3.878 | +48.1 |
| Dec-23 | 3.887 | +49.0 |
| Jan-24 | 3.865 | +46.8 |
| Mar-24 | 3.797 | +40.0 |
| Apr-24 | 3.709 | +31.2 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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