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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
The downside surprise on the Manufacturing October PMI (49.5) takes us back to mid year levels, so not a disastrous result, but disappointing for those looking for a strong run into year end for the China economy. The employment and price indices were also weaker relative to recent trends.
- The detail showed some large swings in terms of the sub-components. Output remained positive at 50.9 (from 52.7), while new orders fell to 49.5 from 50.5. The employment sub-index dipped to 48.0, with little sign of improvement in this sub-index in recent months.
- New export orders fell to 46.8 from 47.8, which ended the recent run of improvement in this index and goes against some signs of greater resiliency in terms of the global outlook.
- The chart below overlays the y/y change in the manufacturing PMI against global IP growth (also y/y).
- Input prices slumped back to 52.6 from 59.4, while output prices also fell sharply to 47.7 from 53.5.
- Conditions softened across all of the large, median and small sized enterprises surveyed.
- On the non-manufacturing side new orders were down noticeably (to 46.7 from 47.8). The headline back to 50.6 from 51.7 (52.0 expected).
- While price metrics also fell sharply, input prices to 49.7 and selling prices to 48.6. Employment conditions also softened to 46.5 from 46.8.
Fig 1: China Manufacturing PMI Versus Global IP Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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