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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that official China PMIs for March print tomorrow. The market expects a pull back in both readings, with manufacturing forecast at 51.6 (prior 52.6, forecast range 50.5-53.0). For non-manufacturing or services, the market expects a 55.0 reading (prior 56.3, forecast range 53.0-57.0).
- Recall that at the start of March, the Feb PMI prints surprised on the upside and kicked off a wave positive China asset related sentiment, albeit which was fairly short lived.
- A pull back in the manufacturing PMI is in line with the down tick in the emerging industries PMI, which has already printed for March (see the first chart below). The emerging industries PMI tracks China's high tech sector.
- If the consensus is right it would still leave the manufacturing sector comfortably in expansion territory. Also note that China Premier Li stated at the Boao forum today that the economic situation in March is even better than January/February.
Fig 1: China Manufacturing PMI Versus Emerging Industries PMI
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- On the services side, some pull back from the heady Feb levels arguably wouldn't be a surprise. The Standard Chartered China SME index continued to recover in March, although the non-manufacturing sector PMI is already at levels higher than implied by this index.
Fig 2: China Non-Manufacturing PMI Versus Standard Chartered China SME Index
Source: Standard Chartered, MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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