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PMIs: Hungary Lags Behind CEE Peers

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Despite the elevated restrictions imposed by governments in the first quarter to fight the pandemic, we saw that manufacturing PMIs have surged to new highs in most of the developed economies; for instance, US ISM mfg. PMI rose to 64.7 in March, its highest level since December 1983.
  • The chart below shows that Goldman Sachs DM manufacturing PMI has risen for 11 consecutives months for the first time since inception (January 98).

Source: GS


  • Interestingly, while mfg. PMIs in Czech Republic and Poland have followed the global PMI trend (Czech PMI rose to 58 in March, its highest level since the beginning of 2018), Hungary mfg. PMI for March was still standing below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.
  • As the vaccination campaign has been accelerating in Hungary, with 40% of the population expected to have received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine by early next week, business surveys in Hungary should increase significantly in April.
  • Hungary mfg. PMI for April will come out on May 3.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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