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PMIs See Sharp Decline With Weaker Jobs, Prices

US DATA
  • Weak US S&P Global PMI preliminary reports see front-end Treasuries rally circa 4bps and the dollar fall back to flat on the day.
  • The composite surprisingly fell from 49.5 to 47.3 (cons 49.3), the second sharpest monthly decline since 2009 barring the initial pandemic period.
  • The fall in service business activity was more pronounced (from 49.3 to 46.6, cons 49.5), with a solid decline stronger than that seen in Sept whilst business confidence fell to the weakest level since Sep’20 as higher operating costs and client hesitancy weighed on optimism.
  • Jobs: “In line with weaker client demand, private sector firms scaled back their hiring activity, leaving employment broadly unchanged on the month” and the SA employment index below the 50.0 neutral mark for the first time since Jun’20.
  • Prices: "In an effort to drive new sales and remain competitive, firms reportedly offered concessions to customers following the decrease in some costs such as transportation. The rate of output charge inflation eased to the softest since Dec’20, but was still quicker than the long-run series average."

Source: S&P Global

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