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Pointing to marginal disappointment in the data

STIR FUTURES

There was only a marginal beat to US CPI (particularly looking at the unrounded figures). From a kneejerk move of Eurodollar Whites moving a little lower than their pre-data level, we have now seen the entire Eurodollar curve move up relative to its pre-data levels and flatten.

  • ED Whites are 0.5-1.5 ticks higher on the day (from unch to 1.0 tick higher pre-data), Reds 2.0-3.5 ticks higher (+1.0 pre-data), Greens 3.5-4.0 ticks higher (+1.0-1.5 pre-data), Blues 4.0-4.5 ticks higher (+1.5 pre-data).
  • Euribor Reds, Greens and Blues have all been dragged around 1 tick higher than pre-data while the SONIA curve has seen Whites up to 1 tick higher, and the rest of the curve up to 1.5 ticks higher than pre-data.
  • With slightly larger moves seen in the ED curve than Euribor we are seeing EURUSD move higher.
  • These market moves all point to slight disappointment in the data, despite the marginally higher prints.

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