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Poised For a Pivot in Dec?

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading mildly higher, inside narrow overnight range on light volumes (TYZ<210k) as market awaits a likely 75bp rate hike from the FOMC at 1400ET today, Chairman Powell presser at 1430ET.
  • Main focus on forward guidance, many sidelined amid ongoing debate over a year end "pivot". Tuesday's JOLTS data (job openings rise unexpectedly to 10.717M vs. 9.75M est (above prior 10.053M) showed labor market remains tight - dampening speculation over step-down to 50bp hike at Dec FOMC.
  • STIR pricing: Eurodollar futures trade steady to mixed in the short end: Dec'22 mildly lower (-0.005 at 94.875) while balance of 2023 futures gain +0.010-0.015. Cumulative pricing through December up slightly to 136.5bp from 135bp. Peak Fed funds climbs to 5.03% in May 2023.
  • Limited data - markets are looking forward to ADP private employ read for October at 0815ET: +185k est vs. +208k prior, with main focus on Friday's NFP: +196k est vs. +263kl prior.
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