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POLAND: August Inflation Confirmed At +4.3% Y/Y

POLAND
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Statistics Poland confirmed that inflation was at +4.3% Y/Y in August, according to final data for that month released today. The flash sequential reading of +0.1% M/M was also confirmed. Data on core inflation will be published by the NBP on Monday.

  • ING estimate core inflation at around +3.7-3.8% Y/Y. They call the fact that services price inflation stays stubbornly above +6.0% Y/Y and the lack of any disinflationary trend in this sector "worrying." ING reiterate that the MPC will only consider interest-rate cuts in 2025.
  • PKO write that headline inflation should not exceed +5.0% Y/Y through the rest of this year.
  • The Polish Economic Institute expect inflation to accelerate above +4.5% Y/Y in September, with the unfreezing of energy price and services price hikes still exerting pressure on overall inflation. They think that inflation will still be close to +4.5% at the end of 2024. They note that PPI dynamics suggest the production costs are pausing earlier declines in most EU countries, which will contribute to the increase in industrial goods prices.
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Statistics Poland confirmed that inflation was at +4.3% Y/Y in August, according to final data for that month released today. The flash sequential reading of +0.1% M/M was also confirmed. Data on core inflation will be published by the NBP on Monday.

  • ING estimate core inflation at around +3.7-3.8% Y/Y. They call the fact that services price inflation stays stubbornly above +6.0% Y/Y and the lack of any disinflationary trend in this sector "worrying." ING reiterate that the MPC will only consider interest-rate cuts in 2025.
  • PKO write that headline inflation should not exceed +5.0% Y/Y through the rest of this year.
  • The Polish Economic Institute expect inflation to accelerate above +4.5% Y/Y in September, with the unfreezing of energy price and services price hikes still exerting pressure on overall inflation. They think that inflation will still be close to +4.5% at the end of 2024. They note that PPI dynamics suggest the production costs are pausing earlier declines in most EU countries, which will contribute to the increase in industrial goods prices.