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POLAND: ING Say Full-Year GDP Growth Forecast of 3% Remains Valid

POLAND
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  • Following the second reading of Q2 GDP growth figures this morning, ING note that, in their view, growth in the second half of the year should remain driven mainly by consumption and public investment (largely military). The slow rebound in the eurozone does not bode well for Polish exports and also discourages companies from investing, they say.
  • Furthermore, there is no major improvement in non-military public investment, which is more likely to rebound in 2025. However, strong consumer spending suggests that their full-year GDP growth forecast for 2024 (3%) remains valid.
  • They add that GDP growth should accelerate slightly in 2025 (to around 3.5% or higher). Consumer spending will remain the main driver of growth. On the other hand, ING expect a marked rebound in investment, both private and public.
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  • Following the second reading of Q2 GDP growth figures this morning, ING note that, in their view, growth in the second half of the year should remain driven mainly by consumption and public investment (largely military). The slow rebound in the eurozone does not bode well for Polish exports and also discourages companies from investing, they say.
  • Furthermore, there is no major improvement in non-military public investment, which is more likely to rebound in 2025. However, strong consumer spending suggests that their full-year GDP growth forecast for 2024 (3%) remains valid.
  • They add that GDP growth should accelerate slightly in 2025 (to around 3.5% or higher). Consumer spending will remain the main driver of growth. On the other hand, ING expect a marked rebound in investment, both private and public.