POLAND: NBP Say Inflation to Remain Elevated in Coming Quarters

Updated inflation and GDP forecasts (vs. prior forecast):

• 2024 CPI at 3.6-3.7% vs. 3.1-4.3%
  • 2025 CPI at 4.2-6.6% vs. 3.9-6.6%
  • 2026 CPI at 1.4-4.1% vs. 1.3-4.1%
• 2024 GDP at 2.3-3.1% vs. 2.3-3.7%
  • 2025 GDP at 2.4-4.3% vs. 2.8-4.8%
  • 2026 GDP at 1.7-4.0% vs. 1.9-4.3%

Highlights from the policy statement:

• Incoming data suggest that in 2024 Q3 annual GDP growth could have been somewhat lower than in 2024 Q2.
• The rise in inflation since mid-2024 has been mainly a result of increases in administered prices of energy carriers
• Inflation is currently significantly boosted by rising energy carriers’ prices and by other regulatory factors. The price pressure in the domestic economy is also stimulated by the marked wage growth
• Demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low
• In the coming quarters inflation will remain elevated, and in the case of a further increase in energy prices at the beginning of 2025, it will rise
• Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity.

Click here to see the full policy statement.